Schedule Risk Analysis
Schedule risk analysis tests whether a programme's dates are realistic by modelling the uncertainty in durations, logic and risk events. Instead of a single fixed finish date, it gives a range of outcomes and the confidence attached to each. Project Scheduling provides quantitative schedule risk analysis (QSRA) for construction and mining programmes across Australia, so you know how likely the plan is to hold before you commit to it.
When You Need It
A deterministic programme shows one date and hides the risk behind it. Schedule risk analysis matters when the completion date carries real consequences: a tender commitment, a shutdown window, a contractual milestone, or a board decision. It shows whether the date is achievable, how much contingency it needs, and which activities drive the risk.
What It Tells You
The probability of hitting the target date, and the date at a given confidence level
The contingency required to reach an acceptable confidence
The activities and risk events that contribute most to the exposure
Which critical and near-critical paths are most likely to drive delay
Whether apparent float and embedded allowances genuinely protect the governing completion milestone
How It Is Done
Quantitative schedule risk analysis runs a Monte Carlo simulation over the programme, varying activity durations across their likely ranges and applying discrete risk events. The model captures both normal variation in activity durations and discrete risk events, such as access restrictions, approvals, late supply or adverse conditions, where they can affect the programme. The result is a probabilistic forecast, a distribution of possible completion dates with confidence levels, built on a schedule that has first been checked for sound logic and quality.
How we build it:
Review the programme for logic, constraints, calendars and progress integrity.
Set duration uncertainty and discrete risk events with the project team.
Run the simulation and test milestone confidence, contingency and path sensitivity.
Present a decision-ready result: confidence, contingency, drivers and mitigation priorities.
From Analysis to Live Monitoring
A one-off analysis is a snapshot. ProjectPulse carries the same probabilistic forecasting into live delivery, so the confidence position updates as the project progresses rather than sitting in a report.
Independent and Sector-Specific
Project Scheduling works across mining, heavy industrial, civil, infrastructure and commercial construction programmes. The analysis is independent and delivered directly, so the numbers reflect the real risk, not a comfortable answer.
Know the real odds on your completion date and the contingency it needs. Let us run the numbers on your programme.
Common Questions
What confidence level should a completion date be set at?
P80 is a common decision point for major projects, an 80% probability of completing on or before the forecast date. P50 is an even chance of hitting the date. The right level depends on the consequence of missing the milestone, the party carrying the risk, and the organisation's risk appetite. The analysis shows the date at each level so the commitment is made on the numbers.
How much schedule contingency does a programme actually need?
Enough to move the committed date from its deterministic position to the confidence level the project requires. Schedule risk analysis quantifies that gap directly, the difference between the single-date plan and the P80 outcome, so contingency is set on evidence rather than a flat percentage added at the end. It also tests whether apparent float and embedded allowances genuinely protect the governing completion milestone, or sit on paths that do not.
What does a schedule risk analysis need to run?
A current, logically linked programme with realistic remaining durations, calendars and constraints, plus the project's risk information and access to the people who understand the delivery strategy. The schedule is checked for quality first, because a simulation built on broken logic produces confident nonsense. Duration ranges are then set for the activities that carry uncertainty, discrete risk events are applied, and the simulation runs across the network to produce the distribution of completion dates.
How is schedule risk analysis different from adding a buffer to the programme?
A buffer added without analysis is a guess, it may be too small, too large, or located where it does not protect completion. Schedule risk analysis measures the uncertainty and risk across the network, identifies the critical and near-critical paths and events that drive the exposure, and shows the contingency tied to a chosen confidence level. The result is a defensible contingency position and a clear target for mitigation.
Test the Date Before You Commit
Get an independent read on your completion-date confidence, the contingency it needs, and the risks most likely to move the milestone.